ESPN
Aug 9, 2024, 07:00 PM
There was a lot for the New York Mets to be frustrated by in the first two months of their 2024 season, but their lowest point might have been on June 2, when they blew a one-run lead in the ninth to cap a disastrous homestand in which they went 3-7. That loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks dropped their record to 24-35 -- already 16.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East.
It had been a month of misery for the Mets -- one highlighted by late-inning blown leads and extra-inning losses, injury setbacks, outbursts and ejections, a players-only team meeting and finally, a roster shake-up. The season was spiraling out of control as only the Mets know how to spiral. Their playoff odds, according to FanGraphs, had fallen below 8% and the trade rumors -- mostly about Pete Alonso -- were starting to heat up, even with the trade deadline nearly two months away.
Then, the Mets flipped a switch. Since that June 2 loss to the Diamondbacks, they've gone 36-19, the best record in the majors over that span. They're in the thick of the wild-card race -- hardly a lock in a crowded NL field, but their FanGraphs odds have improved to 39%. New York is also a half-game ahead of the Atlanta Braves and 7.5 behind the Phillies in the division -- a far cry from the 16.5-game deficit they faced at the start of June.
So, what changed the Mets' fortune and helped them go from laughingstock to playoff contender? Here are four keys to their turnaround as the Mets take on the Seattle Mariners on "Sunday Night Baseball" (7 p.m. ET).
1. Francisco Lindor heats up
Look, it certainly helps when your best player is playing well -- and Lindor is the Mets' best player. Check out what he's done before and after June 2:
Through June 2: .227/.293/.395, 9 HRs, 29 RBIs, 33 runs (59 games)
Since June 2: .283/.368/.518. 13 HRs, 36 RBIs, 42 runs (55 games)
That first line undersells his slow start. He was hitting .193 on May 20 before the hits finally started falling. With Lindor leading the way, the Mets are tied for fourth in the majors in OPS since June 3 and only the Diamondbacks have scored more runs.
It's also a reminder that Lindor must be the first player to go from Cleveland to New York and somehow become underrated along the way. He plays a premium defensive position and plays it well -- indeed, he ranks in the 99th percentile of fielders with 13 outs above average, making him perhaps the Gold Glove favorite in the NL. He hits for power. After stealing a career-high 31 bases last season, he's on pace to surpass that total. He posts every day, playing every game this season after missing just three games over the past two years. Even though he didn't have a good season in his first year with the Mets in 2021, he ranks 10th among position players in WAR since coming to New York -- and yet has never made an All-Star team with the Mets (despite finishing ninth in the MVP voting each of the past two seasons). Maybe he doesn't play with quite the same unbridled joy he had in Cleveland and he's not going to hit .300, but he's a top-five MVP candidate -- and maybe more than that once you factor in that Shohei Ohtani doesn't play defense. Lindor is a professional who plays hard and understands his game -- and he's somehow still just 30 years old.
2. Switching from Brett Baty to Mark Vientos
Remember that roster shake-up we mentioned? Well, that might have been one of the factors that helped save their season -- and Vientos taking over at third played a big part of that.
Last season, the Mets gave 389 plate appearances to Baty, playing him at third base, and 233 to Vientos, with most of his time coming at DH with some starts at third and first base sprinkled in. Both were in their age-23 seasons. Neither hit well, with Baty producing a .598 OPS (66 OPS+) and Vientos a .620 OPS (69 OPS+). Baty's biggest edges appeared to be prospect pedigree (he was a first-round pick and always rated higher as a prospect) and better defense (not that Baty reminded anyone of Robin Ventura at third base).
Buried in those 2023 numbers, however, were some underlying metrics: Vientos had a hard-hit rate of 51% and average exit velocity of 92.5 mph. Baty was at 44.3% and 89.5. Vientos hit the ball harder and more often. Baty had slightly better plate discipline, but both had struck out too much. Both also had comparable numbers at Triple-A Syracuse (.999 OPS for Vientos, 1.013 for Baty).
Baty got the job out of spring training -- and immediately struggled at the plate. On May 30, the Mets sent him down to Triple-A, as he was hitting .225 with four home runs. Vientos, who had hit well in limited duty, became the regular third baseman. No, his defense isn't going to win any awards, but he's hit well -- .273/.328/.543, 17 home runs, 44 RBIs. It's no coincidence the Mets' offense took off as Vientos started playing regularly.
Did the Mets make an initial mistake going with Baty? Not necessarily. There wasn't a whole lot to separate the two based on 2023. But give them credit for switching to Vientos -- or, more aptly, give Vientos credit for taking advantage of his opportunity and improving a bit around the edge (higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate).
3. The rotation has improved (a little bit)
The numbers:
Through June 2: 8-21, 4.49 ERA, 22 quality starts in 59 games (37.3%)
Since June 2: 24-12, 3.82 ERA, 22 quality starts in 56 games (39.3%)
We don't want to read too much into that ERA improvement. The batting numbers against have remained largely unchanged (the OPS allowed has actually increased 17 points since June 2). The biggest difference is that while Luis Severino was the only starter pitching well early on, the Mets now have Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea pitching well. Since June 2:
Quintana: 5-2, 2.59 ERA, .657 OPS allowed
Manaea: 5-2, 3.00 ERA, .617 OPS allowed
Manaea just reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts with 10 and 11 strikeouts, joining Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden as the only Mets with consecutive starts of at least seven innings, no runs and double-digit strikeouts. David Peterson is also 6-1 since June 2, although his peripheral numbers aren't as strong as those from Quintana and Manaea. The calf injury to Kodai Senga in his first game back after missing all season, which will likely force him to miss the remainder of the regular season, was a big loss, although president of baseball operations David Stearns picked up Paul Blackburn at the trade deadline, and he's had two quality starts in his first two outings.
Still, the rotation looks like it could be the key to making the playoffs: Is there enough quality depth here? Severino has slowed down after a hot start and Quintana and Manaea are hardly sure things to keep pitching this well.
4. The bullpen has improved (maybe, sort of)
Let's put it this way: The pen is at least avoiding those late-game collapses that plagued the team the first two months. Edwin Diaz struggled early on and then hit the injured list with a sore shoulder, but he has pitched more like 2022 Diaz of late -- he has a 1.38 ERA with nine saves in 10 chances since returning from the IL. Through June 2, the Mets went 3-7 in extra-inning games; since then they've gone 3-1.
Due to injuries and poor production, Stearns had to remake much of his bullpen in July, acquiring Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Huascar Brazoban at the deadline. Maton has pitched well, while Stanek and Brazoban have not. The Mets claimed Alex Young off waivers from the San Francisco Giants and he's gotten some big outs. The two biggest additions, however, have been Jose Butto and Dedniel Nunez. Butto began the year in the rotation before moving to the pen and has been lights out as a reliever (0.87 ERA, .121 average allowed). Nunez, currently on the IL with right pronator strain, is a 28-year old rookie with a 2.43 ERA and 45:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If the Mets can get everyone healthy and Stanek and Brazoban pitching well, this could be an even better bullpen down the stretch.
There are other keys to their success here as well: Francisco Alvarez missed all of May with a torn ligament in his thumb; Jeff McNeil has slugged .696 over his past 19 games; Brandon Nimmo had a huge June; Alonso has been consistently productive and, like Lindor, hasn't missed a game. The Mets have recovered to put themselves in a position to make the playoffs. Instead of asking, "What can go wrong?", maybe in 2024 we can ask: "What will go right?"
