COLUMBUS, OH — APRIL 23: Former President Donald J. Trump shakes hands with U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance at the Save America Rally, April 23, 2022, at the Delaware County Fairgrounds, Delaware, Ohio. (Photo by Graham Stokes for the Ohio Capital Journal.)
In two weeks, the Republican National Convention meets in Milwaukee, and it may shake up the political landscape here in Ohio. Although there’s no doubt about the top of the ticket, former President Donald Trump has indicated he plans to select a Vice President before or during the nominating convention. U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-OH, is on Trump’s shortlist, and if he gets the nod and they win election, it could kick off a game of musical chairs among the state’s leading Republicans.
Nuts and bolts
If there’s a vacancy in Ohio’s U.S. Senate delegation, the governor gets to appoint a replacement. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s office declined to weigh in what factors would drive his decision making. A spokesman described those considerations as hypothetical and said it would be “disrespectful to those involved to comment on (it) at this time.”
Even if Trump does select Vance, an actual vacancy is probably still a long way off.
Vance doesn’t need to resign to run as Vice President. In 2016, for instance, U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-VA, was Hilary Clinton’s running mate. After their ticket lost, he went back to the Senate and continued serving. Similarly in 2008, both Barack Obama and John McCain were serving as U.S. Senators while running to be the next President. Obama got a promotion, and McCain kept his old job.
Assuming Vance were to follow that pattern, a vacancy would only occur if he’s selected as Vice President and the Trump-Vance ticket wins in November.
However DeWine arrives at a decision, his appointee wouldn’t necessarily serve out the remainder of Vance’s term, which runs through 2028. Instead, state law calls for a special election at the next regularly scheduled election that is at least 180 days later. That puts the election for Vance’s unexpired term in November of 2026.
Whoever the governor selects could defend their seat in that 2026 special election. It’s a rare set of circ*mstances — the last appointee was Democrat Howard Metzenbaum in 1974 — and the track record isn’t great.
The U.S. Senate maintains a database of appointed members going back to 1913 when the 17th Amendment established direct election of U.S. Senators and a process for replacing them. All five of Ohio’s appointed U.S. Senators were unable to win the subsequent special election.
Two of them didn’t even win their party’s nomination.
Political landscape
Aside from the procedural questions that come with a potential vacancy there’s the question of who should be up for consideration. Earlier this year, the Republican party selected Bernie Moreno as its U.S. Senate nominee in a race against state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, and Sec. of State Frank LaRose.
If Moreno wins in November, Dolan and LaRose might make the list. Another possibility is that DeWine could select a future gubernatorial candidate in hopes of thinning out the 2026 primary field. Still another possibility would be to select one of Ohio’s U.S. Representatives, setting off yet another search for a pinch hitter.
To Ohio Wesleyan University political scientist Brianna Mack, there will be a strong case to replace like-for-like, finding “someone that is also of the MAGA camp,” like Vance. But shortly before Election Day in this year’s primary, DeWine went in a different direction, throwing his support behind a more centrist candidate in Dolan. Although Mack acknowledges it might seem like a “logical” option to turn to Dolan again, backing a candidate the party so recently passed over could be fraught.
“So, let’s say that he did appoint a Dolan,” she said. “What would end up happening is that that person may not actually win the upcoming election.”
“Dolan has run twice and hasn’t secured the nomination, so we know the party doesn’t want him,” she added. “While he is a more moderate choice and arguably, he would be better on the national stage, if he can’t survive state level preliminaries, what was the point?”
David Cohen, a political scientist from the University of Akron, emphasized “if there’s going to be a vacancy that means that Trump has won the presidency.” Even with the demands of preparing for a second term, Cohen doubts Trump would hold his tongue on Vance’s replacement.
“(Trump) would definitely be somebody that would weigh in on who he thinks should be in that seat,” Cohen said. “And that certainly is something Governor DeWine would have to contend with.”
Cohen also stressed that the Ohio GOP has a deep bench of potential appointees, and DeWine would have no shortage of familiar faces outside the recent U.S. Senate field.
“Maybe a political deal would be cut so that there wouldn’t be so many people running for governor,” Cohen offered. “Instead, somebody decides to shift to the U.S. Senate, maybe they’ll get a little extra support, because I think the (2026) governor’s race is going to be pretty crowded.”
If Ohio voters were to split their ticket in November, favoring the Trump ticket for President while reelecting U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-OH, a vacancy might give Moreno a second chance at the Senate.
Cohen said that kind of mulligan isn’t out of the question.
“Well, I think it would depend on the election results, certainly,” he said. “If it were a fairly close election, I think that’s an easy argument to make.”
Follow OCJ ReporterNick Evans on Twitter.
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