Early picks for Week 1, plus NFL is finally meeting with Deshaun Watson and predicting every Giants game (2024)

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

If anyone in St. Louis is reading today, you might want to just skip over today’s newsletter and that’s because we’re going to be rehashing a painful period for you. Not only are we going to talk about the Rams leaving your city, but we’re also going to talk about how the NFL thought about MOVING THE RAIDERS THERE. Seriously.

We’ve also got an update on the NFL’s investigation into Deshaun Watson, plus we’ll be predicting the Giants‘ entire 2022 schedule.

As always, here’s your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. All you have to do is click here and then share the link.

1. Today’s show: Early NFL picks for Week 1

Every Friday during the NFL season, our resident picks expert, R.J. White, joins the Pick Six Podcast to make his picks for the upcoming week. Although today isn’t Friday, we decided that now would be a good time to bring White on the podcast so we could get some of his early best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season.

Even though the start of the regular season is still four months away, it can be smart to get your bet in now because a few of these Week 1 point spreads could undergo some major changes between now and September.

2. Deshaun Watson meeting with the NFL this week and what that means

Early picks for Week 1, plus NFL is finally meeting with Deshaun Watson and predicting every Giants game (1)

The NFL has been investigating Deshaun Watson for more than a year now and that investigation is expected to take a huge step forward this week with the league finally interviewing the Browns quarterback, CBS Sports NFL Insider Josina Anderson has reported.

Here’s a look at where the investigation stands:

Although Watson isn’t currently facing any criminal charges, he is still facing 22 civil lawsuits that all allege sexual assault and/or sexual misconduct. The NFL’s investigation into Watson started in March 2021 and over the past 14 months, the league has interviewed several of the women involved in the case.
For the most part, the league doesn’t interview the player until the investigation is nearing its end, which means the NFL could very well be getting ready to conclude the investigation. That being said, it’s also possible the league could turn around and try to interview a few more people involved in the case after getting Watson’s side of the story.
Just because he wasn’t criminally charged doesn’t mean he can’t be punished by the NFL. Part of the league’s investigation involves trying to figure out whether Watson violated the NFL’s personal conduct policy. There have been several cases in NFL history where a player was never charged, but did end up getting suspended. In 2010, Ben Roethlisberger was hit with a six-game suspension — which was later reduced to four — after two different women made sexual assault claims.
One key thing to keep in mind with this investigation is that Watson’s fate is NOT in the hands of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. As noted by Yahoo Sports, Goodell gave up the power to suspend players in certain situations and this is one of them. Instead of Goodell, Watson’s suspension is expected to be decided by an impartial arbitrator and in Watson’s case, that person will likely be U.S. District Court Judge Sue Robinson.

If the NFL’s interview with Watson does signal that the investigation is ending, then it won’t be surprising if the league makes a decision about a possible suspension before the start of training camp. The NFL loves to dump news just before the July 4 holiday, so I won’t be shocked at all we hear something around then.

3. NFL considered making the Raiders move to St. Louis in 2014

It’s been six months since the NFL reached a $790 million settlement with St. Louis over a 2017 lawsuit the city filed related to the relocation of the Rams. Although the case ended in November, we’re still talking about it today and that’s because some juicy court documents were obtained by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week.

The craziest thing revealed in those documents is that the NFL was actually thinking about moving the Raiders to St. Louis in 2014.

Here’s how the timeline of that went down:

According to the court documents, it became pretty clear that the Rams were privately making plans to leave St. Louis in 2013 even though they were publicly saying that they wanted to stay.
In January 2014, Rams owner Stan Kroenkepurchased a giant chunk of land in Los Angeles, which is where SoFi Stadium would eventually be built. At the time of the purchase, Kroenke insisted that the land wasn’t going to be built for a stadium.
Even though the NFL wouldn’t publicly admit it, it was pretty clear that the Rams were going to leave St. Louis. To keep fans in St. Louis happy, the NFL came up with a wild plan: Move the Raiders there.
From the Post-Dispatch, “The league indeed contemplated, at one point, the Raiders moving to St. Louis, with restructured ownership and a brand makeover.”
Not only is it crazy that the league thought about moving the Raiders to St. Louis, but it’s just as crazy that they wanted to do it with a “restructured ownership.” It’s not exactly clear what that means, but it does insinuate the NFL would have wanted someone besides Mark Davis in charge.
One reason why the Raiders-to-St. Louis idea likely didn’t go very far is because Davis was adamantly against it. The Raiders owner was asked about a possible St. Louis move in 2016 and he had this to say, “It’s just the Raider brand is a different brand, I believe and I just don’t believe that St. Louis would maximize it,” Davis said at the time,via the Post-Dispatch. “I just don’t feel it in my heart that that’s where the Raiders are gonna be. Wherever we put this stadium, it’s gonna be for the rest of my life. And I just want it to be the right place.”

For the full story on the NFL’s plan to move the Raiders to St. Louis, be sure to click here.

4. Ranking second-year quarterbacks based on how likely they are to take a big leap in Year 2

Early picks for Week 1, plus NFL is finally meeting with Deshaun Watson and predicting every Giants game (2)

There were six quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL Draft who made at least one start as a rookie last year, and heading into their second year, most of them will be hoping to be the next Joe Burrow. In his second year in Cincinnati, Burrow led the Bengals to their first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years.

So who has the best chance to be this year’s Burrow? Chris Trapasso went through and ranked all six of last year’s rookie quarterbacks based on how likely they are to take a huge leap in 2022.

Let’s get to the ranking.

1. Trey Lance, 49ers. “If Lance doesn’t take a massive leap in 2022 it’ll be due to one of two things, and they may be related. Either he simply doesn’t have “it” — quick processing speed, requisite accuracy, touch, etc. — and/or Kyle Shanahan simply can’t coach a quarterback who can and wants to play outside his very stringent system.”
2. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars. “I’m confident Doug Pedersen is going to be significantly more of a steadying force on the sideline for Lawrence than the quarterback’s previous coaching. Lawrence will take a noticeable jump in Year 2.”
3. Zach Wilson, Jets. “The throwing brilliance is there with Wilson. Though he’s slighter-framed than most quarterbacks today, he has arm talent galore, and he was a sneaky-efficient scrambler as a rookie. The Jets have constructed a relatively cozy infrastructure around Wilson. It’s on him to utilize that infrastructure to its maximum potential.”
4. Davis Mills, Texans. “Blessed with a strong, live arm and a sprinkle of athleticism, if you squint when watching Mills you can see what teams are looking for at the quarterback position in today’s NFL.”
5. Mac Jones, Patriots. “I watched every Jones drop-back in 2021 and believe he had one of the most overrated rookie quarterback seasons in quite some time. Jones may take a minuscule step in New England, but his lacking physical tools will linger as the main reason he can’t hang with the other youthful quarterbacks in today’s NFL.”
6. Justin Fields, Bears. “He’s last on this list almost strictly due to his situation in Chicago.”

If you want to read Trapasso’s full thoughts on each quarterback, then be sure to click here.

5. Predicting the Giants’ final record for 2022

With Memorial Day right around the corner, that means the dead part of the NFL offseason is almost upon us and although things can get kind of boring during that period, we’re going to keep things spicy around here by going through and predicting each team’s record for the 2022 season.

There are 32 teams and we’ll be doing one team per day until we make it through every team. Yesterday, we started with the Steelers, and today, we’re moving on to the New York Giants.

Your favorite Wednesday newsletter writer Cody Benjamin went through the Giants’ entire schedule and picked out all the games they’re going to win and all the games they’re going to lose.

Here’s a look at his predictions from three key games:

Week 1: Giants at Titans.“Malik who? Ryan Tannehill opens the year comfortably throwing against New York’s undermanned secondary, and the Giants, with a lackluster receiving corps, are forced to keep feeding Saquon Barkley despite Jeffery Simmons‘ presence up front.”Prediction:Titans 26-17 over Giants.
Week 8: Giants at Seahawks.“Seattle waffles between Drew Lock and Geno Smith as the former battles an injury suffered behind their makeshift line, and Brian Daboll takes advantage, sticking to the ground to control the ball and quiet the West Coast crowd for a much-needed win.”Prediction:Giants win 23-17 over Seahawks.
Week 13: Commanders at Giants.“Coming off a long rest following their Thanksgiving loss to Dallas, the Giants reestablish themselves as wild card long shots by getting after Carson Wentz, who can’t connect with Terry McLaurin due to holes up front.”Prediction:Giants 25-19 over Commanders.

Overall, Cody is predicting that the Giants will end the season with an 7-10 record and although that’s not exactly impressive, Giants fans will probably be thrilled if the team improves by four wins over their 2021 record during Brian Daboll’s first year on the job.

If you want to see Cody’s prediction for each game, be sure to click here to check out his entire story. If you’re looking for more scheduling content, we also ranked the top-five must-see games on the Steelers’ schedule and you can check that out by clicking here.

6. Rapid-fire roundup: Antonio Brown wants to retire with the Steelers

Early picks for Week 1, plus NFL is finally meeting with Deshaun Watson and predicting every Giants game (3)

It’s been a wild 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Antonio Brown has figured out his retirement plans.Brown hasn’t officially announced that he’s retiring, but whenever he does decide to retire, he wants to sign a one-day deal with the Steelers. Of course, based on how things ended for Brown in Pittsburgh, it’s not clear if the Steelers will want him retiring with them.
Bengals star says he won’t play this year on franchise tag. There’s some drama brewing in Cincinnati with Jessie Bates. The Bengals safety has reportedly decided that he won’t be playing this season on the franchise tag, which means the Bengals have until July 15 to get a deal done with their star defender.
Sean Payton joining Fox for 2022. It looks like Sean Payton definitely won’t be on an NFL sideline in 2022. According to Pro Football Talk, the former Saints coach has signed a deal with Fox that will cover at least the upcoming season. Payton might eventually return to the sideline, but if he does, it won’t be until 2023 at the earliest.
Rams still trying to re-sign Odell Beckham. After winning a Super Bowl with the Rams, Beckham is now a free agent and it’s not clear where he’s going to sign. One team that definitely wants him is the Rams and coach Sean McVay made that known this week, “I really want Odell back on our team,” McVay said. “He’s a guy that in a short amount of time, we were able to develop a really special relationship. I thought he brought a great spark to our team. I thought he played really well. He’s a great teammate.” Based on Beckham’s recent tweets, though, it seems he hasn’t re-signed with the Rams yet because they haven’t been offering him enough money.